Bitcoin on-chain charts & cycle indicators.
The Bitcoin indicators worth watching — cycle models, on-chain ratios, flows, derivatives, mining, macro — rebuilt in the open and recomputed nightly from the complete daily price history. Every formula published, every source cited, every failure mode documented. No login, no paywall, no ads.
Spot BTC
$65,837.03
+2.3% 24h
Days since genesis
6,372
3 Jan 2009 → today
Historical low
$0.05
2010-07-18
Historical high
$124,773.51
All time
TL;DR
- The reference
- A free, no-login Bitcoin chart reference: 44 indicators recomputed nightly from the full daily history since 2010, each with a live reading in the catalogue below. Methodology on every page; every data source documented and cited.
- Why it exists
- The canonical Bitcoin chart references have drifted behind paywalls and login walls. btc oak rebuilds the same indicator surface in the open — transparent formulas, primary-source citations, per-cycle history tables, and the “when this indicator was wrong” section the paywalled incumbents leave out.
- How to read it
- Indicators are lenses, not forecasts — every page carries a “where it fails” section for a reason. Read them as a portfolio of disagreeing signals: a single chart in isolation is the easiest way to talk yourself into the wrong cycle position.
Charts · 44 indicators
updated nightlyCycles
7 charts Methodology →
01 The Rainbow Chart
Bitcoin's price since genesis in logarithmic space, divided into nine valuation bands.
Band 2 · Deep Value · −50.6%
02 Stock-to-Flow
A scarcity-based valuation model. Price as a function of existing supply divided by new annual issuance.
Extremely undervalued · −69.1% vs model
03 Power-Law Corridor
Bitcoin's price bounded by a narrowing log-log corridor, first described by Giovanni Santostasi.
Lower band · 16% of corridor
04 Pi Cycle Top
Two moving averages whose crossover has historically landed very close to Bitcoin's major cycle peaks.
Far · gap −60.8%
05 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap
Long-term support line, colored by its four-week rate of change.
Flat · historically a bottoming phase · 4wk Δ 1.53%
16 Golden-Ratio Multiplier
Philip Swift's 350-day-MA Fibonacci band. Six multipliers (1.6, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) mark progression from accumulation to late-cycle excess; later peaks have tended to top out in lower bands.
0.71× 350DMA · Below 1.6× MA
26 Drawdown from All-Time High
Percentage below the running all-time high on every historical day. The canonical bear-market shape, annotated with every cycle-trough anchor.
−47.2% · 251d since ATH · Bear territory
On-chain
14 charts Methodology →
06 Fear & Greed Index
A 0–100 composite of volatility, momentum, dominance, social, and survey signals. A read on market sentiment.
19 · Extreme fear
07 Puell Multiple
Daily issuance value divided by its 365-day average. Miner-revenue regime as a cycle lens.
0.598 · Accumulation range
08 Net Unrealized Profit / Loss
The fraction of all BTC currently held at a paper profit. Zero is the break-even network.
+16.9% · Hope / Fear
11 AHR999 Index
A dollar-cost-averaging index built from the short-run price and its 200-day geometric mean. Under 0.45 marks the DCA zone; over 1.2, overbought.
0.347 · DCA zone
12 Reserve Risk
Price divided by the accumulated HODL bank — long-term-holder conviction relative to price. A log-scale index that typically ranges from 0.0005 to 0.05.
0.00113 · Strong conviction
13 RHODL Ratio
The ratio of 1-week to 2-year realized-cap bands. A cycle-top lens — peaks when recently-moved coins dominate the realized-cap distribution.
780 · Accumulation
14 STH / LTH SOPR
Spent-Output Profit Ratio split by holder age. Above 1 means coins are being spent at a profit; below 1 means loss. Short-term and long-term crossings frame cycle regimes.
STH 0.997 · LTH 0.993 · Balanced
15 STH / LTH Realized Price
Average cost basis of coins by holder age cohort. Spot against short- and long-term realized prices — a classic support and resistance band for cycle bottoms and tops.
STH $72,900.06 · LTH $49,249.49 · Between cost bases
27 MVRV Ratio
Market capitalisation divided by realized capitalisation — Bitcoin's price-to-book. Readings below one have marked the deepest capitulation windows.
1.19× realized · Fair-to-elevated
28 MVRV Z-Score
The Awe & Wonder standardisation of MVRV. Above +7 marked the classic early blow-off tops; deep bottoms tend to cluster near +0.1 and below.
Z +0.33 · Undervalued
29 HODL Waves
Two-bucket long-term-holder dominance stack. Accumulation into cold storage vs distribution to new hands, day by day.
LTH 82.5% · 90d +9.4 pts · Accumulating
39 Active Addresses
Daily unique addresses that transacted on the Bitcoin network. Saturates above a million at cycle peaks; bottoms near 500k in deep bears.
557,329 · 30d 632,120 · YoY −16.6% · Contracting
40 New Addresses
First-time addresses created per day. A stronger adoption signal than total active — measures on-boarding rather than circulation.
255,910 · 90d 289,291 · YoY −7.6% · Normal
41 Bitcoin Correlations
90-day rolling correlation of Bitcoin with gold, small-caps, Nasdaq-100, S&P 500, and long-bonds. Is BTC digital gold, tech stock, or independent?
top GLD +0.81 · Gold-linked
Mining
2 charts Methodology →
30 Hash Rate
Total computing power securing the Bitcoin network, 2009 to today. Grows with price in log space; sharp drawdowns mark miner capitulations.
908.1 EH/s · 30d −5.8%
31 Hash Ribbon
Charles Edwards' 30/60-day hash-rate crossover. Capitulation below, recovery above. This page marks every raw recovery upcross.
Capitulation · last 2026-05-23 · 27 recovery signals
Statistical
10 charts Methodology →
32 Daily Issuance
New Bitcoin issued per day — a step function halving every four years. USD value and annualised inflation alongside, with the countdown to the next halving.
450 BTC · $29.6M/day · 0.82% infl · 674d to halving
33 Rolling CAGR
Compound annual growth rate over 1, 3, 5, and 10-year rolling windows. The Bitcoin returns-by-period question answered in one chart.
1y −37.6% · 3y +37.1% · 10y +56.5% · Normal
34 Rolling Volatility
Annualised stddev of daily log returns across 30, 90, and 365-day windows. The long-run maturation story — vol compressing every cycle.
30d 42.4% · 90d 39.4% · 365d 43.3% · Normal
35 Profitable Days
Every historical day coloured sage or rust — would buying that day have been profitable at today’s price? A visual bear-market anatomy of the holding history.
88.4% profitable · 676 unprofitable · longest 479d
36 Halving-Cycle Overlay
Four halving cycles normalised to day 0 — how every post-halving price run compares at the same days-since elapsed.
day 787 · 1.04× · prior 2.35× · best 20.1× (2012 cycle)
37 Time in Band
Asymmetric time-distribution across the Rainbow valuation bands. Years in the lower bands, weeks in the Euphoric.
Band 2 · Deep Value · most lived-in 3 · Accumulation
38 Monthly Returns Heatmap
Bitcoin’s monthly return grid — years as rows, months as columns, coloured by sign and magnitude. The evergreen seasonal-performance reference.
MTD −10.7% · YTD −25.5% · best +453.0% Nov 2013
42 Daily Transaction Count
Daily confirmed on-chain transactions. Saturates near 300–500k per day under the block-size ceiling; the 30-day average reads network usage through fee-market regimes.
726,520 · 30d 619,425 · YoY +60.5% · Expansion
43 Daily Fees
Total USD transaction fees paid to miners each day. Halving-day spikes and ordinals/runes events stand out against four orders of magnitude of history.
$173k today · 7d $209k · share 0.59%
44 NVT Ratio & Signal
Market cap divided by daily on-chain transaction volume. Bitcoin's price-to-utility ratio — Woo's original NVT plus Kalichkin's 90-day smoothed NVT Signal.
Signal 217.1 · raw 857.4 · Normal
Flows
3 charts Methodology →
09 Bitcoin ETF Flows
Daily net flow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs since January 2024. Cumulative inflows and AUM alongside.
+$0.09B today · Neutral
10 Exchange Reserves & Net-Flow
Total BTC held on centralised exchanges, paired with the 30-day aggregate net inflow.
2.51M BTC · 30d +29,486 BTC · Heavy inflows
21 Coinbase Premium Index
Price delta between Coinbase Pro and Binance. Positive spikes tag US-institutional accumulation; sustained negatives have preceded distribution phases.
−0.054% · 7d −0.068% · Balanced
Derivatives
4 charts Methodology →
17 Long/Short Ratio
Ratio of long to short accounts on the top perpetual-futures venue. A contrarian positioning lens — crowded longs precede flushes, crowded shorts precede squeezes.
1.330 · Longs crowded · longs 57.1%
18 Funding Rate
Volume-weighted perpetual-futures funding rate. Positive means longs pay shorts; negative means shorts pay longs. A real-time read on leverage imbalance.
+0.0018% 8h · Neutral
19 Open Interest
Total USD value of outstanding Bitcoin futures contracts across exchanges. Rising OI into price rallies marks leverage build-up; flushes mark deleveraging.
$49.17B · 3.73% of mcap · Leveraged
20 Liquidation Heatmap
Aggregate long- and short-liquidation clusters over the last year, shown as a price × time density grid. Bright cells are magnet zones price tends to seek.
1.32 up/down · Balanced
Macro
4 charts Methodology →
22 Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market cap, 2013 to today. The cleanest lens for BTC-versus-alt regime.
58.6% · 60d +0.1 pts · Stable
23 Stablecoin Market Cap
Total USD stablecoin market cap — USDT, USDC, DAI, and the rest. A proxy for dry powder waiting to deploy.
$266.91B · 30d −2.0% · Contraction
24 Altcoin Season Index
A 0–100 index. Zero is pure Bitcoin season, one hundred is pure altcoin season — measured directly against the top-50 alts.
50 · Altcoin-leaning
25 BTC vs Global M2
Bitcoin price against global (or US) M2 money supply. Two log scales, 180-day rolling correlation, optional basket toggle.
M2 $118324.79B · YoY +10.3% · 180d ρ -0.86 · Negative correlation
Notes · 2 analyses
from the dataResearch note
Every Bitcoin cycle top has been weaker than the last
Measured in log-space distance from trend, the four peaks since 2013 form one falling series — with the math and the caveats.
Research note
Bitcoin’s blow-off regime is thinning
The share of each cycle spent in the euphoric band has fallen from a quarter of all days toward zero. The residency data, cycle by cycle.
Reference · 4 pages
live toolsLive block-anchored
Bitcoin halving countdown
Days, blocks, and cycle progress to the next subsidy halving.
Past + projected
Bitcoin halving dates
Every halving with date, block, reward, halving-day price, and forward 12-month return.
Cycle peaks
Bitcoin all-time high
Current ATH, days since, distance, plus every cycle peak and the drawdown that followed.
Sat-level math
Bitcoin total supply
Live circulating supply, the protocol-level 21M cap derivation, and the lost-coins range.
About this site
btc oak is a free reference work in the spirit of what LookIntoBitcoin was before it went behind a paywall: the most commonly cited Bitcoin cycle models, kept current and explained honestly. The charts are lenses for thinking about price in the context of time, scarcity, and market regime — neither forecasts nor investment advice.
Every coefficient refits nightly from the complete daily history. Every formula is published on the methodology pillar, every term defined in the glossary, every data source cited on sources. The author bio lives on about.